Final In-Class Blog

Comac C919 Cockpit Interior

For my final in-class blog post, I have decided to revisit the subject of Comac. Specifically, their aircraft production woes and lofty dreams of a U.S. FAA certification for either of their airframes. Initially I wrote in support of the Comac program, and was hopeful for their progress. I also lightly touched on a very similar program starting up in Russia, the Irkut MC-21 Regional Jet. However, after a little further research on both of the programs, I may have to rescind my hopeful tone. While I still do hope that both programs eventually come forth as legitimate competitors who deliver a safe and reliable product; I have to admit that when presented with new facts, I concede that it may not happen as fast as I had initially thought/hoped, if it happens at all.

The 2 different Comac programs have both been met with many setbacks. The smaller, regional jet design (ARJ-21) has already been put into production and has actually flown several commercial service flights within China (for an airline that is a subsidiary of Comac itself, go figure). However, the more highly touted program, the larger C919, hasn’t even left the ground on a test flight yet. The ARJ program went almost a decade over schedule by the time it actually took off on a service route. The C919 looks as if it will take at least that, very likely more. Another huge issue that Comac faces, if it truly desires to be a competitor to Boeing and Airbus, is its volume and production capabilities. Despite having the ARJ-21 in service already, only 6 of them have been produced since 2008, only one of them actually delivered for service. As of right now, Comac has claimed to have almost 350 orders in for the ARJ-21, but with a 6-planes-per-8-year timetable, who knows how many of those orders will actually come to see light. Compare this production time to Boeing’s average output of 6 completed 737’s (bigger airplane) every 36 hours (Vice, 2016). Also compare order numbers of a measly 350 for a regional jet, when even Bombardier and Embraer handle order numbers in the thousands. Obviously something will have to change drastically before Comac can consider themselves a true competitor to Boeing or Airbus. On top of the already unreasonably slow production issue, the current estimates indicate that Chinese airlines alone will need more than 6,000 airplanes between 2014 and 2034 (Vice, 2016). Something at the Comac production line needs to change in order for it to hope to meet those estimates.

Continuing to build on the ARJ-21 struggles, we have a plane that doesn’t seem to push the envelope in any category. In fact, it is a plane that seems to be decades out of date before it even leaves the factory. Visually, it looks very similar to an MD-80 or a late run DC-9. So right out of the gate, Comac has started off by making their ‘brand new’ regional jet the spitting image of a 50 year-old discontinued American jet. That doesn’t set the tone very well. A lot of the components inside the aircraft are also either outdated, or just borrowed from other pre-existing airframes. The engines are General Electric CF-34 turbofans; and the electronics and avionics are all made by American based companies that already supply the same components to other manufacturers (Vice, 2016). The only thing that really makes the ARJ-21 “Chinese” is the construction of the nose cone, the empennage, and the final assembly all happening in China. Almost nothing in the airplane is actually ‘new’, and because of that Comac can only barely claim to having ‘designed’ a new jet. From design to production the ARJ-21 was delayed over a decade. Eight years’ time passed between the first test flights and the ARJ-21 actually entering service. Compare this to Boeing’s latest jewel, the 787, which needed less than 2 years from first test flight to the first delivery for service (Vice, 2016). It is worth noting the difference, both in physical size and aeronautical complexity, between the 787 and the ARJ-21. Boeing launched a much larger and much more complex aircraft in less than a third of the time.

All this being said, the Chinese have managed to put together a functioning and (so far) safe airplane that has performed its duties in service without fail. Although with the first commercial ARJ-21 flight occurring on June 28^th, 2016, not much can be said for a 6-month track record of safety in the aviation industry. There is still a very long, and very arduous road ahead for Comac. Especially if they have dreams of the C919 battling the 737 and the A320 for dominance in the skies.

Putting together all we know about the ARJ-21 program, it leaves us with a pretty gloomy picture of what to expect for the C919. The C919 is designed to compete with the Boeing and Airbus wide-body models 737 and A320, respectively. While the idea is sound, and competition is almost always good for business, I believe the issues that Comac has already faced will prove to be too much. The C919 hasn’t even flown a test flight yet. Comac initially wanted to make delivery of the C919 to customers by 2016. Now it’s looking like they will be able to conduct taxi tests within a matter of weeks, and they might get the first aircraft in the air for test flights by the second quarter of 2017. Comac’s new hope is to make deliveries to customers some time in 2019 (USAT, 2016). However, given the delays that the ARJ-21 saw after its first test flight, I feel like we may not see the C919 in the skies for another decade, possibly longer, other than a test flight.

The one good thing that Comac has going for it is the fact that they are government created and owned (Fortune, 2016), which means funding is essentially limitless. This helps Comac because Chinese built aircraft is a goal that the entire Chinese government wants to see come to fruition. Another pro for Comac, at least in the Chinese market, is that Chengdu Airways is a subsidiary of Comac, and most of their other customers are state-owned (Fortune, 2016). Chengdu Airways is the company that bought the 1^st ARJ-21 and has orders for 30 more. This means that Comac has at least one set customer for when and if they ever get the C919 off the ground.

The biggest hurdle yet to face Comac, if they truly want to compete with Boeing and Airbus, is the United States Federal Aviation Administration certification to do so. The ARJ-21 is not certified to fly in American skies with its current specifications, and can actually only fly in Chinese skies or countries that recognize the authority of the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) (Loyalty, 2015). The ARJ didn’t even obtain CAAC certification for over 13 years after its design release. Now, with the C919 already being 3+ years behind schedule and not even being off the ground yet, CAAC certification is but a distant dream. Even more distant is the FAA certification. Comac will need to figure out how to increase their testing and production times, make a plane with new and better specifications, and urge the Chinese government for better relations between CAAC and FAA governing bodies (Reuters, 2016), before it can hope to obtain FAA certification for either of its aircraft. As it is, the CAAC gave certification to the ARJ-21 without FAA approval. While this doesn’t break any laws or codes of conduct, the two governing bodies of aviation usually try to work together. This was seen as a setback between U.S. and China aviation cooperation (Reuters, 2016).  Slightly worrisome considering Chinese-U.S. aviation cooperation is seen as one of the most outstanding achievements since the U.S. and Chinese governments re-established diplomatic relations in 1979 (Reuters, 2016).

     ‘"It could be seen as a loss of face for the Chinese given they deem FAA certification a key rite of passage for what will be the first domestically built jet to enter commercial service," said Greg Waldron, Asia managing editor at Flightglobal, an industry news and data service.’ (Rueters, 2016)

Overall, I don’t see Comac being awarded FAA certification to fly its aircraft within U.S. borders any time soon. There is a lot of speculation as to whether that is because of more stringent rules from the FAA, or whether it is because of some schoolyard-like bullying because of the CAAC and FAA situation. No real evidence can be provided either way, but the fact remains that without the FAA certification, no Comac aircraft will be seen above U.S. soil. However, the FAA certification is one of the last things that Comac needs to worry about. They don’t have their “big dog” in the C919 even remotely ready to start building and making deliveries. And even the aircraft they do have, the ARJ-21, they can’t seem to build enough of them to worry about anything but the Chinese market for now. After further research from my initial post on this topic, I would say that I have switched my stance. I used to be hopeful, because I am always one who loves to see competition in business. After seeing new data, I just can’t bring myself to believe that Comac will be a real player in the world aircraft manufacturing business within the next 50+ years, if ever. Boeing and Airbus haven’t even bothered to respond other than to roll out new and updated aircraft that would have rolled out on a similar timeline anyways. I can’t say I fault them for not even raising a brow at companies like Comac quite yet, at least not until they prove that they are a real threat.

Resources:

Vice - Riva, A. (2016, June 28). China just flew its first passenger jet - and it's a clunker | VICE News. Retrieved December 11, 2016, from https://news.vice.com/article/china-just-flew-its-first-passenger-jetand-its-a-clunker

USAT - Mutzabaugh, B. (2016, June 30). Now flying: China's first modern passenger jet enters service. Retrieved December 11, 2016, from http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/todayinthesky/2016/06/30/now-flying-chinas-first-modern-passenger-jet-enters-service/86549178/

Fortune - Cendrowski, S. (2016, February 16). China’s Answer To Boeing Loses Shine. Retrieved December 12, 2016, from http://fortune.com/2016/02/16/china-comac-c919-delay-delivery/

Loyalty - Powell, S. (2015, November 09). China's COMAC C919 Aircraft Running Behind Schedule - First Commercial Flight Not Before 2019 | LoyaltyLobby. Retrieved December 13, 2016, from http://loyaltylobby.com/2015/11/09/chinas-comac-c919-aircraft-running-behind-schedule-first-commercial-flight-not-before-2019/

Reuters - Govindasamy, S., & Miller, M. (2015, October 21). Exclusive: China-made regional jet set for delivery, but no U.S. certification. Retrieved December 13, 2016, from http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-aircraft-arj21-exclusive-idUSKCN0SF2XN20151021

Photo Credit - http://jetsettimes.com/2015/11/05/can-chinas-c919-be-the-next-boeing-737/